Social mobility and electoral behaviour : sociological models and statistical modelling
The analysis of the effects of social mobility on individual behaviour is a field of research which has evolved considerably over the last fifteen years as regards methodology. This has allowed other statistical models to be used, since those used in the works of P. Blau and O. Duncan, to express the relationship between social origin, the position held and individual behaviour. The types of modelization, first proposed by K. Hope then, in particular, by M. Sobel, produce a statistical expression of this relationship which is more adequate than that produced by the additive linear model. Having outlined the two principal series of sociological hypotheses related to the effects of social mobility on political behaviour, the article goes on to compare various statistical models which are available in this field and gives a series of empirical analyses. These analyses show that the « diagonal models » proposed by M. Sobel allow a good sociological test of the hypothesis of the added effect on the vote produced by social origin and position. To finish the empirical analysis the effects of age on the respective weighted value of these two variables are identified.